A pandemic is a situation
where a disease spreads over a wide geographic area and affects an
unusually large number of people. The number of people across the globe
pronounced as infected with the Type A H1N1 swine flu virus is
sufficiently high toda across the globe that the World Health
Organization, the health department of the United Nations, is forced to
raise its pandemic alert for swine influenza to Phase 5, only a step
short of the top alert condition at Phase 6. This Phase measure is an
indicator that demonstrates recognition of the fact that the virus is
able to circulate evenly among the human population and that there is
nothing tangible left that keeps a disease reaching pandemic
proportions. This level of alert prompts governments across the world
to deploy measures aimed at arresting the spread of the disease by
issuing directions on trade and travel restrictions.
The World Health Organization recognizes today that the swine flu
spread has made noticeable advances towards becoming a pandemic even if
final evidence of having a pandemic is not yet apparent. The WHO has
estimated now at international conferences that it is not to be
considered inevitable that the world should have a full-blown pandemic.
The influenza virus is noted for its ability to mutate very quickly;
this quality makes
it quite difficult to predict whether the virus will
become more virulent or less.
According to a WHO release, the swine flu virus is now in evidence as
having spread so far and wide that it can no longer be feasibly bottled
up in a region. The best hope now is to have governments work to
administer cures or palliatives. The US for example, is already acting
swiftly to warn the public that the swine flu outbreak is to be
considered a public health emergency.
Here is a quick run-through of the various alert Phases that the WHO
uses to describe a disease outbreak:
Phase 1: There is no evidence that swine flu viruses are seen to infect
humans.
Phase 2: At least one case is known where swine flu seems to have
crossed over to humans.
Phase 3: There are several known cases of swine flu attacks on humans,
but they are all cases of direct transfer from animal to humans, and
not any transfer from humans to humans.
Phase 4: The swine flu virus has adapted well enough to no longer need
to come from an animal to infect a human; it can now directly move from
human to human. There is full recognition of the potential for a
pandemic at this point, though it is not considered inevitable.
Phase 5: At least two countries in any single WHO region are seening
the swine flu virus spread from one person directly to another. A
pandemic is considered almost unavoidable at this stage and governments
focus on addressing the disease in their own countries.
Phase 6: This signals a full-blown pandemic. More than two countries in
any one WHO region are seeing inections and it signals that the swine
flu pandemic is now crossing continents.
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